I find your idea interesting.
That being said, I’m a HVAC contractor that has been doing Manual J and Manual M load calculations for over 40 years.
The big issue with contractors doing load calculations and then installing a system is they ALWAYS install more than is needed to cover their (you know what)
That being said I would start with a new Manual J load calculation and then maybe extrapolate your actual heating system usage based on degree days and compare the 2.
I have had customers use this to find out the load on their own homes. It seems pretty accurate.
https://www.coolcalc.com/